Who will be the next generation of photovoltaic cell technology?

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2022 is the first year of the outbreak of N-type batteries, and the development of next-generation photovoltaic battery technologies such as TOPCon, HJT, and IBC is in full swing.

The National Energy Administration issued the “Construction and Operation of Photovoltaic Power Generation in the First Half of 2022”. In the first half of 2022, the total installed capacity of photovoltaics in my country was 30.88 GW (1 GW = 1000 MW), a year-on-year increase of 137.4%. It has exceeded the sum of installed capacity in the first ten months of last year.

Among the many links in the photovoltaic industry chain, the battery link is the core of technological progress. Cells belong to the middle and lower reaches of the entire photovoltaic industry chain. Cells are processed on the basis of silicon wafers, and their function is to convert light energy into electrical energy.

With the rapid development of my country’s photovoltaic industry, my country’s photovoltaic cell market is growing rapidly. Under the background of continuous expansion of leading enterprises, my country’s photovoltaic cell production capacity is growing rapidly. In 2021, China’s cell production capacity will be 350 GW/year, a year-on-year increase. 59.09%.

In terms of output, the production of photovoltaic cells in my country has maintained a rapid growth trend in recent years. In 2011, the total output of solar cells in the country was only 21GW. By 2021, the output of photovoltaic cells in my country has increased to 198GW, a year-on-year increase of 46.9%.

The output scale of the photovoltaic cell market has increased year by year, and the industry is mainly concentrated in East China. The region with the largest output of photovoltaic cells is East China, which accounts for 73.2% of the national output, and the output in the Southwest is 9.42%, ranking second. Among the provinces and cities, Jiangsu Province has the largest output of 53.834 million kilowatts, which is nearly twice that of Zhejiang; Zhejiang’s output ranks second at 28.6006 million kilowatts; Anhui’s output ranks third at 2060.7 Ten thousand kilowatts.

Technology is continuously upgraded, and the photovoltaic industry is developing rapidly

Technological innovation will also gradually transfer photovoltaic cells from P-type to N-type. Photovoltaic cells are mainly divided into P-type and N-type. P-type silicon wafers are doped with boron, while N-type silicon wafers are doped with phosphorus.

P-type batteries mainly include BSF batteries and PERC batteries, occupying a major market share. N-type batteries are mainly divided into three types: TOPCon, HJT (heterojunction), and IBC.

At present, the space for cost reduction and efficiency improvement of P-type photovoltaic cells on the market is shrinking, and many companies have begun to deploy N-type photovoltaic cells one after another.

Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments jointly issued the “Action Plan for Accelerating the Green and Low-Carbon Innovation and Development of Power Equipment”, pointing out that after 5 to 8 years, focus on the development of high-efficiency and low-cost photovoltaic cell technology in solar energy equipment, including TOPCon, HJT , IBC and other crystalline silicon solar cell technologies and the industrialization of perovskite and stacked cell module technologies.

According to the statistics of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the PERC cell market will account for about 91% in 2021, and the combined proportion of heterojunction and TOPCon will be less than 3%.

It is estimated that by 2025, the total proportion of ultra-high-efficiency cell technologies represented by heterojunction and TOPCon will be close to 40%, and it is expected to exceed 75% by 2030.

At present, most of the HJT battery production lines are still mainly small-scale. In the longer term, the disruptive innovative technology represented by HJT has a simpler process, a clear and clear path to industrialization cost reduction, and a large room for future efficiency improvement. , but the high cost of incompatibility with the PERC production line makes it less competitive in the short term. According to the forecast of Energy Trend, the total production capacity of HJT battery project is planned to exceed 150GW.

However, IBC battery is a platform-type long-term battery technology route, and it is still difficult to achieve mass production in China. At the same time, the classic IBC efficiency premium is difficult to cover the cost premium, and the TBC and HBC paths combined with TOPCon and HJT are expected to attract industrial transformation.

At present, there are not a few domestic companies deploying IBC batteries, such as LONGi Green Energy, Aixu, Trina Solar, Jolywood, JA Solar, etc. It is expected that a small amount of production capacity will be implemented this year.

AI core world丨Trend丨Trillion new energy market is competing for the throne, who will be the next generation of photovoltaic battery technology?

TOPCon battery has entered the stage of industrialization expansion

According to SMM statistics, my country’s Topcon battery production capacity has expanded rapidly this year. At present, 49.4GW has been put into production, 60.5GW is under construction, and 206GW is planned. It is estimated that the TOPCon battery production capacity will reach 77.4GW by the end of 2022, and the production capacity is mainly concentrated in Jiangsu, Anhui, and Zhejiang, accounting for 42.76%, 31.01%, and 19.38% respectively.

It is estimated that the TOPCon battery production capacity will reach 305.9GW by the end of 2023, of which the annual new production capacity will reach 228.5GW, and the new production capacity will be mainly concentrated in Jiangsu, Anhui, Zhejiang and Shanxi.

In October of this year, GCL Integration issued an announcement on signing a 20GW photovoltaic cell and supporting industry production base project investment agreement with the People’s Government of Wanjun District, Wuhu City, and reached a cooperation intention on investing in the construction of a 20GW TOPCon photovoltaic cell and supporting industry production base project .

AI core world丨Trend丨Trillion new energy market is competing for the throne, who will be the next generation of photovoltaic battery technology?

Ending: Photovoltaic battery enterprise development space

With the concept of saving energy in the world, photovoltaic cell green technology has become a new star in the industry. And this wave of green technology trend is the first to promote solar energy as the most bullish market, and it may become the world’s most popular star of tomorrow.

Who will be the next generation of photovoltaic cell technology?

As we all know, in the current photovoltaic industry chain, although the overall entry threshold of photovoltaic cells is relatively low, it is also one of the most technologically transformative links. Since the PERC battery completed the technological transformation of the first generation of photovoltaic cells (BSF cells) and pushed the photovoltaic industry into the era of parity, the “efficiency anxiety” in the subsequent cycle has become prominent.

Photovoltaic cell technology is developing by leaps and bounds, and the development trend from P-type to N-type is a foregone conclusion, which also attracts more industrial capital to be deployed in it.

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