It is time to look back for another year. The gear of time is always moving forward like nobody else.
Standing at the end of 2022, I unconsciously remembered the sentence in Tom Stopard’s play “Akaria”:
“The future is chaotic. Since we walked upright, the door has been opened five or six times. This is the best time to live. Almost everything you think you know is wrong.”.
In the magical reality of 2022, any detached and flying cognition and thoughts are easy to fall to the ground. It seems light to use the word “frustrated” to interpret 2022.
The uncontrollable sense of powerlessness runs through the whole of 2022. There are more and more pessimists in the world, and this mood even spreads to 2023.
Whether it is the fate of individuals: 2022 saw too many unexpected departures, the beginning of the insiders lay flat, the voice of the people quietly silent, cherish life as the highest program.
It is also a macro narrative: weak investment, shrinking residents’ balance sheets, falling consumption expectations, persistent inflation, global industrial chain transfer, supply chain decoupling, Russia-Ukraine conflict and energy crisis… The black swan and uncertainty are tearing everyone’s confidence.
The world kisses me with fury, how can we fight back?
After all, the review of the previous situation of 2022 is not without merit. Some winds are fermenting, and some shackles are also being released. Maybe they are laying “colored eggs” for 2023, and these colored eggs will be linked out of the annual context of 2023.
In 2023, the drug cannot be stopped
AI pharmaceutical, innovative drug research and development Closely linked to human destiny, “life and health” is the greatest fundamental
In 2022, people were given a cruel “life education” lesson.
How real death is, how valuable health is.
Some time ago, the sense of lack of drugs made Tunyao become the inertia of people. As reflected in the secondary market, the familiar market of taking medicine and drinking has returned. As of January 5, 2023, the biomedical index rose by 4.13%, and the biomedical ETF (159859) rose by 2.84%, with a rapid momentum. Although it fell a little in the next few days, it did not hinder the overall market.
According to the quarterly report of public funds disclosed in the second and third quarters of last year, although medicine is still one of the industries with low positions, pharmaceutical biology ranks third in the annual seller industry heat ranking in 2023.
Source: Tianhong Index Fund
This rise in collective expectations was seen as early as last February. The “Fourteenth Five-Year Plan” for the Development of the Pharmaceutical Industry (hereinafter referred to as the “Plan”) jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Health and Health Commission, the National Health Insurance Administration, and the National Drug Administration and other nine departments made it clear that by 2025, the main economic indicators will achieve medium-high growth, the innovation achievements in frontier fields will be outstanding, the innovation impetus will be enhanced, and the modernization level of the industrial chain will be significantly improved, The supply and security system of medicine and equipment was further improved, and the level of internationalization was comprehensively improved. By 2035, the strength of the pharmaceutical industry will achieve an overall leap; The innovation-driven development pattern has taken shape in an all-round way, the industrial structure has been upgraded, the product range is more, and the quality is better, so as to meet the people’s health needs at a higher level.
In the frontier field, the Plan clearly states that “support enterprises to base on local resources and advantages, face the global market, focus on new targets, carry out research and development layout of new mechanism drugs, and actively lead innovation, which is also seen as a significant signal of the transformation of the development focus of China’s pharmaceutical industry from me-too, fast follow to first-in-class.
On the supply side of medicine, with the recovery of medical order, the recovery of conventional medicine and the research and development of innovative drugs will become two main lines. In particular, innovative drugs represent the most cutting-edge and cutting-edge subdivision of the pharmaceutical industry. Heavyweight innovative products are not only the biggest driving force for the development of the industry, but also closely related to human well-being.
Today, there are still many major diseases and health problems that have not been solved, including Alzheimer’s disease, malignant tumors, autoimmune diseases, gene defects and AIDS.
On November 29, 2022, the results of the phase III clinical trial of Lecanemab, a new Alzheimer’s drug jointly developed by Bojian and Eisai, were officially released. After 18 months of trial, the dementia score of patients in the lencanemab group dropped to 1.21, while that in the placebo group was 1.66. The drug slowed the cognitive decline rate of patients by 27%, which is also considered to be a decrease β Amyloid protein can improve the cognitive level of patients. The good news is that on January 6, Lecanemab (trade name: Leqembi) was officially approved by FDA for listing, which is also the second approved A in the world after Aducanumab β McAb, this time, we are one step closer to the control of Alzheimer’s.
In terms of cancer prevention and treatment, on December 13, 2022, the phase 2b clinical trial of adjuvant therapy for preventing recurrence of melanoma after surgery, which was carried out by Moderna’s mRNA 4157 in combination with Korida (commonly known as K-drug, the PD-1 inhibitor of MSD), reached the end point, reducing the risk of recurrence or death by 44%. According to Moderna’s plan, the phase III test of mRNA 4157 in 2023 will cover more cancer species. The first-line combination therapy of mRNA combined with PD – (L) 1 marks a milestone in the course of anti-cancer.
At present, the progress of domestic PD-1/PD-L1 has accelerated. Since the first domestic PD-1 trepril monoclonal antibody came into the market, 14 domestic cancer immunotherapy PD-1 (L) 1 monoclonal antibody products have been approved for the market. Except for Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Navulizumab, Mercadon’s Pabolizumab, AstraZeneca’s Duvalizumab and Roche’s Atirizumab, the rest are domestic. Among them, five types of new indications were approved this year, including Junshi Biological’s Treprizumab, Xindalizumab of Xinda Biological, Tirelizumab of Baiji Shenzhou, Fuhong Hanlin’s Slolizumab, and Lepu Biological’s Puterizumab.
At the same time, in the past few years, the potential of AI to shake the pharmaceutical industry has also become very obvious. In the process of “discovering the target – verifying the target – discovering the lead – optimizing the lead” in the discovery of new drugs, by using AI’s inductive reasoning ability and computational power advantages, analyzing the experimental data to optimize the drug research and development process, deducing the molecular structure at the physical level to accelerate the screening and optimization of the lead, and designing and screening the most suitable molecule from the many drug molecular possibilities with the highest efficiency, Shorten the period of entering clinical trials. For example, DeepMind’s AlphaFold is an artificial intelligence that can predict the protein structure. It has unlocked more than 200 million protein structures, which are almost all known proteins in nature. It can be said that it clears the way for the new research of molecular biology.
It can be seen from the naked eye that the implementation of key factors such as medical insurance negotiation and reduction of resistance to going to sea will unleash the most surprising energy in the fields of innovative drug research and development and AI pharmaceutical.
New energy is the turning point of a big country and also the light of industry
Nuclear fusion, renewable energy, energy storage, new energy vehicles Each segment of the upstream and downstream is a sunrise track
Liu Cixin mentioned a key concept in the science fiction “Three Bodies”: the technological explosion, the possibility of technological leap is the over-the-horizon engine buried in the interior of civilization. Once ignited, the scale of human civilization may suddenly increase for hundreds or even thousands of years.
Although science fiction is hypothetical, it still applies today. New energy, to a more specific subdivision, controllable nuclear fusion technology may indeed be the “kindling of the technological explosion”.
Since scientists announced nuclear fusion research to the world in 1958, mankind has been tirelessly hoping to obtain almost unlimited clean, safe and cheap energy by replicating the process of nuclear fusion on the earth. Before that, scientists have been slow to overcome the first obstacle: how to make the energy produced by nuclear fusion greater than the energy invested in triggering the reaction.
On December 13, last year, the United States Department of Energy confirmed that American scientists had achieved the “net energy gain” of nuclear fusion output greater than the input. This historic breakthrough gave a real dawn to solve the energy problem once and for all. Although there is still a long way to go before it is put into use, it shows that the core physics principles have been conquered. This news has undoubtedly brought double sensations to industry and science, It also further catalysed the exploration enthusiasm of commercialized fusion energy technology.
In addition to the scientific research task route of national team research institutes (such as Southwest Institute of Physics (SWIP) affiliated to China National Nuclear Industry Corporation and Hefei Institute of Plasma Physics affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Sciences), a number of private enterprises have also emerged to focus on the design, construction, operation and research and development of small, commercial and fast iterative controllable fusion energy devices, For example, the Energy Singularity and Star-ring Energy-sharing, which were founded in 2021, both companies obtained hundreds of millions of yuan of financing in the past year. On the way to the commercialization of nuclear fusion, the two core directions are all-high-temperature superconducting materials and advanced magnet systems focusing on the next generation of high-performance fusion devices.
As the ultimate energy of mankind, if nuclear fusion can be applied on a large scale one day, it will undoubtedly mean the earth-shaking reconstruction of the earth’s energy structure. In addition, in the new energy sequence, hydrogen energy, photovoltaic, wind power and other industries are highly expected players. Anchored in the industrial chain, the hydrogen energy industry has gradually formed a complex industrial pattern of “production, storage, transportation, processing and application”. In each link, small and medium-sized companies with relevant technology breakthroughs or companies that have transformed to form the ecological coverage capacity of the entire industrial chain will have great imagination space, such as in the hydrogen production link, Meijin Energy, Baofeng Energy and other players have transformed from the field of fossil energy to this point, and have extended their tentacles to hydrogenation, hydrogen fuel cells and other links. In the hydrogen storage link, the compressed gas hydrogen storage technology, the core parts of hydrogen storage tanks, and other methanol hydrogen storage and adsorption energy storage technologies contain huge opportunities.
What cannot be ignored is that the new energy vehicles driven by new energy are still located at the most visible air outlet. With the structural adjustment of continuous power switching, new energy will further penetrate into the third and fourth tier cities and sinking markets, as well as the growth brought by the need for more yuan of improvement. Their corresponding production processes include progressiveness technologies such as new energy fuel cells, big computing chips, sensing hardware, smart cockpit and integrated die-casting, Each segment is the Chaoyang track.
Whether it is inevitable under the dual-carbon logic or the potential of the industry to “create gods”, new energy is a battlefield that cannot be missed.
Light up the science and technology tree — the eternal proposition of never setting sun
ChatGPT、AIGC…… New tools pry new business forms
At the end of last year, ChatGPT triggered a nationwide carnival.
“The essence of civilization is to gradually transfer the functions of individuals to tools. The higher the transfer rate, the more developed the society will be.” Obviously, ChatGPT and AIGC are iteratively becoming new productivity tools and are expected to compose new business stories.
The high-quality dialogue mode of ChatGPT natural language model has broken the iron curtain of the traditional search engine mechanism. This year, Google launched the “Red Code” red alert internally, and comprehensively adjusted its work in the AI field next year around ChatGPT. According to the New York Times, Google CEO Sundar Pichai organized a series of meetings to discuss the AI strategy. Google’s internal teams including R&D, security and trust departments have been reassigned to assist in the development of new AI technology prototypes and products.
Why does ChatGPT pose a threat to Google? It is necessary to understand the essence of search engines. The traditional search engine model is to enter keywords to index different pages and information. In many cases, “what you search is not what you want”, and it needs a lot of filtering, filtering and refining to integrate effective information. This is not the ideal form of search experience. The accuracy of ChatGPT’s natural language understanding ability can directly generate a matching answer to a question.
For example, if you want to know whether condensed milk or skimmed milk is more suitable for making pumpkin pie, ChatGPT gives an analysis, which is better than a bunch of menus given by search engines.
ChatGPT has introduced new variables into the story of search engines. From search to generation, search engines are undergoing a transformation of business paradigm, or will start an intergenerational revolution in search mode.
ChatGPT is just the tip of the iceberg of AIGC. AIGC is not only about text generation, but also about image generation, painting, music, programming, virtual people, games and content review.
Now, we have come to the delicate time point from technology to productization. How to use the leverage of technology to leverage the innovation of business models will determine the next popular product and even the new industry giant.
TO B starts to release
Digital to b, industrial service to b…… After the C-end, the B-end market has become a clearer incremental pool
One obvious perception is that there seems to be no new story on the C terminal. The golden period of dividends has passed. The Internet has not changed local life for 10 years. The halo of payment, e-commerce and short video has been flat.
After the expansion of one ecosystem to the limit, it is also the beginning of another ecosystem. Compared with the C end, the To B model is closer to the cash flow, and the LTV (customer lifetime value) of the B end customers is higher, the transfer cost after customers form the use habit is also high, and the loss rate is low. The To B market has become an alternative growth option.
We know that China’s To B gene has never been well developed. Back to the history of the Internet, Microsoft and Apple operating systems were born in the Web era, and Apple and Android operating systems were born in the mobile era, including the underlying core infrastructure of databases and middleware. None of them came from China. This is also the fundamental reason why there is a big gap between domestic To B and foreign To B ecology, especially in the development period of PC computers, In the process from military industry to civilian popularization in the United States, we have lagged behind for many years, and we gradually participated in it after the popular Internet boom. In this process, the commercial To B system led by the United States has already formed customer habits, and we just started from scratch, so that many of the bottom commercial To B systems are still dominated by international competitors, such as database management systems, basically financial banks, telecommunications The government and other large enterprise groups use it. These enterprises have high requirements for the performance of commercial systems. Most government and enterprises tend to purchase foreign commercial management systems that have accumulated technology for many years, such as the database management systems of companies such as Qrace, IBM and Microsoft. Although this situation has compressed the domestic enthusiasm for To B, it also makes China’s To B market less crowded, and it is still a big cake that has not been “eaten up”.
In the era of mobile internet, with the development of domestic core technology, cloud computing, big data, AI and other emerging technology fields have finally seen more domestic manufacturers. The To B model led by Alibaba Cloud has begun to rise, and a number of high-quality suppliers have also begun to emerge in big data analysis, mid-stage and other aspects. In addition, the background of domestic innovation and the trend of de-IOE belong to domestic databases, operating systems At last, the opportunity for these underlying technology solutions like middleware has arrived.
At the same time, it is easier to find PMF (Product Market) based on the functional logic of To b’s SaaS product
It is time to look back for another year. The gear of time is always moving forward like nobody else.